UTMB 2026 Lottery Chance Calculator

Interactively displays estimated 2026 lottery probabilities based on 2023→2025 data.

Race

Projection Method

Running Stones: 1

Estimated Probability

% 0.00

2026 Demand

—

Avg. Stones

—

Historical Data & Projection

Calculation Model

Exact Calculation Formula:

p = 1 −

Π B-1 i=0

(T − w − i) (T − i)

p = % 0.00

p: Probability of winning
w: Your number of stones; Value: 1
B: Race capacity (Bib number); Value: 2300
T: Estimated total stones (Demand × Avg. Stones + Your Stones); Value: ~0
i: Iterator (from 0 to B-1)

Method Descriptions

CAGR: Applies the 2023→2025 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2026.
Linear: Extrapolates the linear trend from 2023→2025.
Conservative: Applies 70% of the CAGR growth (lower demand).
Optimistic: Applies 130% of the CAGR growth (higher demand).

Note: The actual calculation is done with a more precise logarithmic approximation of the hypergeometric distribution:
p = 1 − Π_i=0^B−1 (T − w − i) / (T − i)